Alternative to VIX when Volatilities are Low?

Can I trade anything other than VIX to bet on higher Volatilities? Yes. What strategy? Calendars slightly out of the money on the put side.

Trade Example

SPY $212.28. Buy 1 July 210 Put and Sell 1 Jun 210 Put. Total Debit around $1.30 ( I just bought it live pretty easily at $1.29).

If the market is slightly down Monday and between 207 1/2 and 212 1/2 and Volatility increases 1 point, I can be up around 8%.

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Basically I can possibly be out of this trade with near 10% returns if SPY goes down even 1 point or 10 SPX points, very attainable!

What If Market Goes Up?

For me to be down around 10% on this trade, SPY would need to approach $216, SPY has never been there so far. I would probably just close the trade at that point.

Or I could turn the Calendar into a Double calendar at around the 216 price level by adding a 218 Call calendar with the same expirations. That would double the capital though.

Should I do Covered Writes with SPX at record levels at $2120??

If you still like a particular stock, the answer is YES! The key is how you do the covered write. Let’s give a trade example.

Trade example #1 AAPL $129. AAPL has been in a range of 125-132 over the last few weeks. This year, it is up about 16% from the $110 level. We are not at the highs, but getting close. If I was concerned about the market backing off and dragging AAPL back down a bit, I would look at an ITM covered write. I would buy 100 shares of stock ( some may already own the stock). I might sell a June 125 call against the long stock. The call is trading at around $5.80 with the stock at around $129. This would give me more downside protection, the breakeven is at $123, below the support of the last 6 weeks. Selling this in-the-money call would cushion us for about a 2 1/2 % drop in the stock over the next month.

AAPL Income Trade for today!

AAPL is at around $128.40 as I write this Blog. The stock is up about 16% for the year from the $110 level. The range over the last 6 weeks has been about 125-132.

At this level, the stock is kind of in the middle of the range and I am looking at a relatively  delta neutral income trade.

What Does Delta Neutral Mean?

  • Not really leaning long or short deltas, no opinion.

What does Income Trade mean?

  • A Trade that is positive Theta, my short options decay quicker than my long options.

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Trade

June 12 Expiration in the Calls ( about 29 days from expiration). Buy one 125 call, Sell two 128 calls, Buy one 131 call.  Total Debit .48 ( $48). This is an at-the-money call butterfly.

I did it live 3-6-3 earlier today at .50,  3-6-3 at .49, and 3-6-3 at .48. That’s called scaling into a trade. I did the quantity 3-6-3 at three different price levels.

Why? I was trying to see what price the market makers really wanted to trade this at.

Mid Prices were .50 when I first started trading this, and I got filled pretty quickly. It was pretty easy to get filled near mid.

Increase in Price

As the price started increasing a bit over $128 , the price of the butterfly decreased a bit, that’s when I got filled at .49 and .48.

You pay the most for a call butterfly at the strike of the short option. As the price of the underlying moves up or down away from the short strike, the butterfly will trade for less.

Option volatilities in AAPL are around 21, the lower end of the range.

I don’t mind the low option volatility for this trade because I like the range I can make money in this trade and with earnings out of the way, I don’t see AAPL implied volatility levels rising that much over the next 14 days.

My Plan

I would like to be out of this 29 day trade in about 12-14 days. Over 132 and under 124 I may look to adjust or get out. In between the prices over the next 12-14 days, I can make anywhere from 1% to 40%.

Closer to the short strike I make more, farther away from the short strike, I make less. AAPL trades more option contracts daily than any other stock.

AAPL averaged over 200,000 plus option contracts daily in April, the 2nd place stock in average daily volume was FB with around 55,000 option contracts traded daily.

GOOGL Iron Butterfly

Today, I am looking at an interesting trade set up in GOOGL. For over the last month, GOOGL has been trading in the 530 to 560 range. The strategy would look to take advantage of that continuation.

  • I’m looking to enter into a GOOGL iron butterfly in May 5 expiration period that is 16 days from expiration (expiring on May 29th). GOOGL is currently trading in the 542 area.
  • Look to sell the 540 put and buy the 520 put, and then sell the 545 call and buy the 565 call. This gives the trade a 45% probability of profit or probability that the price will stay between the breakeven of the strategy. Currently, you can put the trade on for a credit of around $11. It will be $2000 in margin if doing 1 contract and you will subtract your credit from that so the cost of the trade should be around $900-$1000.
  • Take the trade off at a 10% profit or a 15% loss. Again, look for GOOGL to continue being range bound through the rest of the month.

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Trade idea and Commentary on RUT

RUT is currently at around $1226. Two weeks ago it was knocking at all time high levels near 1280. RUT has been down about 4-5% in 2 weeks. SPX, on the other hand, has gone from 2113 to the current level of 2090, only down 1% in the last 2 weeks. Quite a difference! RUT has been more volatile and is trading at current implied volatility levels for 30 day options of around 17. SPX 30 day options are around 13.

Trade idea: Income Traders are looking for a little more premium and RUT current volatility levels around 17 offer a little more juice than SPX with a paltry 13 implied volatility. Looking at RUT and the June 5 expiration. Considering an Iron Butterfly trade. RUT currently at $1226. Buy one 1260 call and sell one 1230 call. Buy one 1190 put and sell one 1230 put. Total credit of around $2600 and total risk or margin of $ 1400. Looking to make around $200 or around 15% on margin or risk of $1400.Starting out pretty delta neutral and short Vega. My premise is that RUT will be range bound to slighter higher over next few weeks. If I was down $300 on this trade, I would exit, and live to play another day.

What about Janet’s comments on the Market?

The comments Janet made on the market should have been consistent with and not disturbing to anyone following the market. The SPX Monday hit a high of $2120, near all time highs,  and proceeded Tuesday and Wednesday to drop about 40 points to the $2180 level. Today the SPX is about about 10 points higher at the current $2090 level. If I asked any of you Monday if you had thought about lightening up some of your long positions or taking some prophets on some of your stocks, most of you would have said yes. Did Janet really say anything different than you were thinking? Of course not. Financial Journalists always have a precise reason the market has increased or decreased for a particular day, most of it baloney. The market probably went down this week because people were taking a few profits because we were at pretty high levels in the market, period!

Dealing with Market Volatility Spikes

One of the most daunting tasks for the option trader is dealing with a spike in market volatility. The situation is particularly difficult because of option’s leverage and risk. It is further compounded if you are also short volatility and dealing with large price movements. Often panic can set in for the new trader, as the price and volatility keep moving against a position. There are things you can do both in the short-term and longer-term to help protect your position.

First, “stop the bleeding”. By that I mean buy long options or long option verticals to immediately stem the tide that is going against you. If you have a spread type trade on and the price and volatility are running hard one way against you, pick up a long option immediately to at least slow down the damage while you further analyze a more appropriate adjustment to your position. Long options and simple verticals often have less slippage and you can get a quick execution of your trade even in a market that is volatile. At this point you have at least reduced the risk on the bad side of your trade.

Once you have slowed down the damage, we can look at further repairing the trade. Depending on the strategy that you are utilizing this may involve rolling out short verticals to further out strikes, adding to the position with more verticals or spreads or in certain cases exiting to trade altogether. Sometimes exiting the trade and then perhaps starting it again another day when the market has calmed down is also a good plan. Typically look to do two, maybe three adjustments to any option position that is working against you and after that consider closing the position. It is important to have this planned before hand so that you have your possible adjustments in mind and also an exit plan at a max loss point that you previously chosen. Planning ahead is key otherwise fear and emotion can cloud good judgment.

Volatility swings in the market are part of life for the trader. Learn to master these and it will increase the success of your option trading business.

How to find Good Stocks for Iron Condors?

#1  use stocks you would buy 100 shares of in your retirement account

#2  use very liquid stocks near $100 or higher:   Examples would be AAPL, NFLX, AMZN, GOOGL, PNRA, XOM, DIS, IBM, TSLA, LNKD, PCLN, etc.

#3  If I did 4 stock Iron Condors every month, I would trade 2 with implied volatility levels under 25 and 2 with implied volatility levels over 25.

#4  Diversify Stock iron Condors  into at least 2 different industries

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